Northern Ireland growth forecasts lowered as local and global headwinds persist
The Northern Ireland economy likely expanded in 2019 Q2, but the rate of growth over the first half of the year remained modest given Brexit, the softening global economy and local political uncertainty.
Looking forward, household spending power is likely to be the main driver of economic growth as the export environment has deteriorated and Brexit is expected to continue weighing on business investment. We are forecasting economic growth in Northern Ireland of 0.9% this year and 1.0% in 2020.
The pace of growth in the Northern Ireland labour market looks to be experiencing an anticipated slowdown, with the latest official data showing the number of jobs expanded at a weaker rate in the second quarter of the year than at the start of 2019. We continue to expect the number of jobs to increase by 1.3 per cent in 2019, but for the pace of job creation to slow to 0.5 per cent in 2020.